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What is the Federal Yield Curve

The Federal Yield Curve is a graph showing the yield on US federal securities of all maturities from one month to 30 years. Experts believe that the shape of the yield curve forecasts future turns in the economy.

Federal Yield Analysis  

 

This page is an analysis of yields on US federal securities.

Latest Federal Yield Curve

Chart Y.01f: Latest Federal Yield Curve

The US Treasury Yield Curve shows the current yield of the full range of securities issued by the US Treasury, from One Month Treasury Bills to 30 Year Treasury Bonds. “Experts agree” that a “normal” yield curve, where every security with a longer maturity has a yield greater than all securities with a shorter maturity, is the sign of a growing economy.

Federal Yield Curve for April 1, 2009

Chart Y.02f: Federal Yield Curve

At the bottom of a recession, as in April 2009, the federal yield curve is sharply positive. A sharply positive yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting recession.”

Federal Yield Curve for November 28,2006

Chart Y.03f: Federal Yield Curve

An “inverted” yield curve, where US securities with shorter maturity have yields greater than some securities with a longer maturity, “experts agree,” is a flashing red sign indicating recession ahead. An “inverted” yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting inflation.”

Federal Yield Curve for June 2, 2008

Chart Y.04f: Federal Yield Curve

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Federal Yield Curve
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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $38,380,536,147,996.03
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Federal Budget for FY27 Released

On April 4, 2026, we updated usgovernmentspending.com with the numbers from the Public Budget Database in the Budget of the United States Government for Fiscal Year 2027

Here is how headline budget estimates for the upcoming FY 2027 fiscal year have changed since the release of the FY 2025 budget in Winter 2024. There were no budgetary estimates in the budget documents for the FY 2026 budget.

Federal Budget Changes for 2027
$ billionEstimate for 2027
in FY2025 Budget
Estimate for 2027
in FY2027 Budget
Change
Federal Outlays$7,696.6$8,092.9 +$569.1
Federal Receipts$6,186.2$5,921.0+$279.1
Federal Deficit$1,510.3$2,171.9+$290.0

You can see line item changes from budget to budget here. You can compare budget estimates with actuals here.

Account level spending estimates through FY 2031 come from the Outlays table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026.

Account level budget authority estimates through FY 2031 come from the Budget Authority table in the Public Budget Database and were updated on usgovernmentspending.com on April 4, 2026. 

US GDP for 2025 Released
On March 15, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its GDP series with the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis ...

US, State Population Update for 2025
On January 21, 2026 the US Census Bureau released its US national and state population estimates for July 1, 2025.  On February 7, 2026 usgovernmentspending.com updated its US and state popula ...

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