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What is the Federal Yield Curve

The Federal Yield Curve is a graph showing the yield on US federal securities of all maturities from one month to 30 years. Experts believe that the shape of the yield curve forecasts future turns in the economy.

Federal Yield Analysis  

 

This page is an analysis of yields on US federal securities.

Latest Federal Yield Curve

Chart Y.01f: Latest Federal Yield Curve

The US Treasury Yield Curve shows the current yield of the full range of securities issued by the US Treasury, from One Month Treasury Bills to 30 Year Treasury Bonds. “Experts agree” that a “normal” yield curve, where every security with a longer maturity has a yield greater than all securities with a shorter maturity, is the sign of a growing economy.

Federal Yield Curve for April 1, 2009

Chart Y.02f: Federal Yield Curve

At the bottom of a recession, as in April 2009, the federal yield curve is sharply positive. A sharply positive yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting recession.”

Federal Yield Curve for November 28,2006

Chart Y.03f: Federal Yield Curve

An “inverted” yield curve, where US securities with shorter maturity have yields greater than some securities with a longer maturity, “experts agree,” is a flashing red sign indicating recession ahead. An “inverted” yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting inflation.”

Federal Yield Curve for June 2, 2008

Chart Y.04f: Federal Yield Curve

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Federal Yield Curve
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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $39,375,989,952,866.26
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

State and Local Finances for 2024 -- First Look

On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances "first look"summaries for FY 2024 released in April 2026.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole. It does not include the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2024 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2025-31 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

Beginning in 2021, the Census Bureau stopped splitting "Public welfare" into three parts:

  • Cash assistance payments
  • Vendor payments
  • Other public welfare
This is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com, because most of "Vendor payments" are for health care and are just pass-through grants from the federal government. So, for the time being, we are splitting "Public welfare" into  the proportions that obtained in 2021.

Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released
On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual ...

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026
On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects ...

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