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What is the Federal Yield Curve

The Federal Yield Curve is a graph showing the yield on US federal securities of all maturities from one month to 30 years. Experts believe that the shape of the yield curve forecasts future turns in the economy.

Federal Yield Analysis  

 

This page is an analysis of yields on US federal securities.

Latest Federal Yield Curve

Chart Y.01f: Latest Federal Yield Curve

The US Treasury Yield Curve shows the current yield of the full range of securities issued by the US Treasury, from One Month Treasury Bills to 30 Year Treasury Bonds. “Experts agree” that a “normal” yield curve, where every security with a longer maturity has a yield greater than all securities with a shorter maturity, is the sign of a growing economy.

Federal Yield Curve for April 1, 2009

Chart Y.02f: Federal Yield Curve

At the bottom of a recession, as in April 2009, the federal yield curve is sharply positive. A sharply positive yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting recession.”

Federal Yield Curve for November 28,2006

Chart Y.03f: Federal Yield Curve

An “inverted” yield curve, where US securities with shorter maturity have yields greater than some securities with a longer maturity, “experts agree,” is a flashing red sign indicating recession ahead. An “inverted” yield curve is a sign that the Federal Reserve Board is “fighting inflation.”

Federal Yield Curve for June 2, 2008

Chart Y.04f: Federal Yield Curve

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Spending Data Sources

Spending data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.

Federal spending data begins in 1792.

State and local spending data begins in 1820.

State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Federal Yield Curve
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Gross Federal Debt

Debt Now:  $39,293,074,039,354.64
Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

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Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released

On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.


In June 2026, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026
On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects ...

Gross State Product for 2025
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2025 on April 9, 2026.Usgovernment ...

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