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What is the Deficit as Percent of GDP?

Deficit: The amount by which the government’s total budget outlays exceeds its total receipts for a fiscal year. —US Senate Budget Committee

In FY 2025 the federal deficit was 5.8 percent of GDP.

This year, FY 2026, the federal government in its latest budget has estimated that the deficit will be 6.8 percent of GDP.

Federal Deficit Analysis  

 

Recent US Federal Deficits as Percent of GDP

Recent US Federal Deficits as Pct GDP

Chart D.31f: Recent US Federal Deficits as Pct GDP

Federal Deficits rocketed, from 1.1 percent of GDP in 2007 to 9.8 percent of GDP in 2009 the Great Recession of 2006-2008. The bank bailouts under the TARP program accounted for almost half of the 2009 deficit.

After the Crash of 2008 was over the federal deficits started decreasing, getting to 4 percent of GDP in FY 2013 and 2.4 percent of GDP in FY 2015, but increasing again in FY 2016.

In the COVID year of 2025 the federal deficit was 5.8 percent of GDP.

Half a Century of US Federal Deficits as Percent of GDP

A Half-Century<br>of US Federal Deficits

Chart D.32f: A Half-Century
of US Federal Deficits

Betwen 1965 and 1990 the federal deficit generally increased, from 0.2 percent GDP in 1965 to 4.4 percent GDP in the aftermath of the 1990-91 recession. The only notable departure was a five year bulge in deficits in the early to mid 1980s due to the Reagan tax-rate cuts and defense buildup.

In the 1990s, during the Clinton administration, deficits consistently declined year on year, from a deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP in 1993 to a surplus of 2.3 percent GDP in 2000.

Tax cuts and the 2000-02 recession and the Iraq war caused a return to deficit spending in the early 2000s and the Bush administration, reaching 3.4 percent GDP in 2004. Deficits decline to 1.1 percent GDP in 2007 before ballooning to 9.8 percent GDP in 2009 in the downdraft of the Great Recession. Deficits declined to 2.4 percent GDP by 2015 but then increased rapidly to 5 percent of GDP. In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit exceeded 15 percent of GDP.

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US Federal Deficits in the 20th Century

Federal Deficits since 1900

Chart D.03f: Federal Deficits since 1900

The two major peaks of the federal deficit in the 20th century occurred during World War I and World War II.

Deficits increased steadily from the 1960s through the early 1990s, and then declined rapidly for the remainder of the 1990s.

Federal deficits increased in the early 2000s, and went over 10 percent of GDP in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008.

In the recovery from the Crash of 2008 deficits slowly reduced to 3 percent of GDP in 2015 and then started increasing again.

In the COVID crisis of 2020 the federal deficit ballooned to over 15 percent of GDP.

US Federal Deficits since the Founding

Federal Deficit since Founding

Chart D.04f: Federal Deficit since Founding

The United States government did not always run a deficit. In the 19th century the federal government typically only ran deficits during wartime or during financial crises. The government ran a deficit of 2 percent of GDP at the end of the war of 1812, and through the decade after the Panic of 1837 and culminating in the US - Mexican War of 1846-48. It ran a deficit of over 7 percent of GDP in the Civil War; and ran a deficit in the depressed 1890s.
In the 20th century the US ran a deficit during World War I, the Great Depression, World War II, and in almost all years since 1960, during peace and war.

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

Chart D.05f: CBO Forecast for Federal Deficit

According to the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office, the federal deficit will grow from 6.2 percent of GDP in 2025 to 7.3 percent of GDP by 2055.

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Debt Data Sources

Debt data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of debt data sources here.

Federal debt data begins in 1792.

State and local debt data begins in 1820.

State and local debt data for individual states begins in 1957.


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Debt 2/2020:$23,409,959,150,243.63

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Data Sources for 2021_2031:

Sources for 2021:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

Sources for 2031:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released

On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual Medicare Trustees Report, which projects Medicare spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that federal health-care programs will eat the budget.

In this report the Trustees forecast that Medicare will top out at a little above 6 percent of GDP in the 2080s.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Medicare Outlook here based on data in the 2026 Medicare Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected Medicare Trustee forecasts going back to 2005.


In June 2026, the Social Security Administration released its annual OASDI Trustees Report, which projects Social Security spending out to 2095.  As in the past, the report shows that Social Security spending will max out at about 6 percent of GDP. UsGovernmentspending.com uses the Supplemental Single Year Tables.

On June 15, 2026, usgovernmentspending.com updated its chart of the Social Security Outlook here based on data in the 2026 OASDI Trustees Report.  You can download the data and also view selected OASDI Trustee forecasts going back to 1997.

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026
On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects ...

Gross State Product for 2025
The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its Gross State Product (GSP) data for 2025 on April 9, 2026.Usgovernment ...

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