US Agency Debt Since 1945

Agency debt (primarily debt from agencies and government-sponsored enterprises like the Federal National Mortgage Association that securitize home mortgage debt) started the immediate post World War II era at with a level of debt less than 0.5 percent of GDP and didn’t hit 1 percent of GDP till 1957.

But then agency debt began an exponential rise, with debt hitting 2 percent of GDP in 1965, blowing past 5 percent of GDP in 1973, reaching 10 percent of GDP in 1981.

Agency debt blew past 20 percent of GDP in 1988, exceeded 30 percent of GDP in 1995, and hit 40 percent of GDP in 1999, and agency debt peaked at 52 percent of GDP in 2003 at the end of the 2000-02 recession.

In the 2000s expansion agency debt declined to 46.7 percent of GDP by 2006, but then blew off in the Crash of 2008, peaking at 56.1 percent of GDP in the Great Recession year of 2009.

After the Crash of 2008 agency debt decreased rapidly to 46.6 percent of GDP by 2012 and then began a more gradual decline to 45.5 percent of GDP by 2014.

In response to the COVID crisis of 2020 agency debt increased to 48 percent of GDP in 2020.

On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances "first look"summaries for FY 2024 released in April 2026.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole. It does not include the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2024 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2025-31 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

Beginning in 2021, the Census Bureau stopped splitting "Public welfare" into three parts:

• Cash assistance payments
• Vendor payments
• Other public welfare