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Social Security Trustees Report 2023
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The chart shows a forecast from an annual government report for the cost, in percent of GDP, of the federal government’s Social Security program for seniors through 2100. It shows the individual cost of the two major parts of Social Security: the Old Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)program and the Disability Insurance (DI) program. See the Social Security Administration’s website for more details.
The numbers are obtained from the SSA’s Reports from the Trustees using numbers from two spreadsheets here.
The overall cost of both programs as a percent of GDP is obtained from a table called in 2023 Table VI.G2: “OASDI and HI Annual Income, Cost, and Balance as a Percentage of GDP, Calendar Years 1970-2095.” The breakdown in cost between OASI and DI was obtained form a table called in 2023 Table IV.B1: “Annual Income Rates, Cost Rates, and Balances, Calendar Years 1970-2095.” The names of the tables change slightly from year to year.
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Below is a formatted version of the data displayed in the chart.
| Year | Social Security OASI percent GDP | Social Security DI percent GDP | ||||
| 2013 | 4.04 | a | 0.85 | a | ||
| 2014 | 4.07 | a | 0.83 | a | ||
| 2015 | 4.13 | a | 0.8 | a | ||
| 2016 | 4.15 | a | 0.78 | a | ||
| 2017 | 4.14 | a | 0.75 | a | ||
| 2018 | 4.16 | a | 0.72 | a | ||
| 2019 | 4.26 | a | 0.69 | a | ||
| 2020 | 4.56 | a | 0.7 | a | ||
| 2021 | 4.3 | a | 0.61 | a | ||
| 2022 | 4.31 | a | 0.58 | a | ||
| 2023 | 4.65 | e | 0.57 | e | ||
| 2024 | 4.78 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2025 | 4.86 | e | 0.59 | e | ||
| 2026 | 4.92 | e | 0.6 | e | ||
| 2027 | 4.99 | e | 0.6 | e | ||
| 2028 | 5.07 | e | 0.59 | e | ||
| 2029 | 5.14 | e | 0.59 | e | ||
| 2030 | 5.21 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2031 | 5.26 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2032 | 5.3 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2033 | 5.34 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2034 | 5.37 | e | 0.58 | e | ||
| 2035 | 5.38 | e | 0.59 | e | ||
| 2036 | 5.39 | e | 0.6 | e | ||
| 2037 | 5.41 | e | 0.6 | e | ||
| 2038 | 5.41 | e | 0.61 | e | ||
| 2039 | 5.42 | e | 0.61 | e | ||
| 2040 | 5.41 | e | 0.62 | e | ||
| 2041 | 5.4 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2042 | 5.38 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2043 | 5.37 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2044 | 5.36 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2045 | 5.35 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2046 | 5.34 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2047 | 5.33 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2048 | 5.33 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2049 | 5.32 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2050 | 5.33 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2051 | 5.32 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2052 | 5.33 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2053 | 5.33 | e | 0.69 | e | ||
| 2054 | 5.34 | e | 0.69 | e | ||
| 2055 | 5.36 | e | 0.69 | e | ||
| 2056 | 5.38 | e | 0.69 | e | ||
| 2057 | 5.39 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2058 | 5.42 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2059 | 5.44 | e | 0.68 | e | ||
| 2060 | 5.47 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2061 | 5.49 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2062 | 5.51 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2063 | 5.53 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2064 | 5.55 | e | 0.67 | e | ||
| 2065 | 5.55 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2066 | 5.57 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2067 | 5.59 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2068 | 5.6 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2069 | 5.61 | e | 0.66 | e | ||
| 2070 | 5.63 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2071 | 5.65 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2072 | 5.66 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2073 | 5.67 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2074 | 5.68 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2075 | 5.69 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2076 | 5.69 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2077 | 5.7 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2078 | 5.7 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2079 | 5.69 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2080 | 5.67 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2081 | 5.66 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2082 | 5.64 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2083 | 5.62 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2084 | 5.59 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2085 | 5.57 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2086 | 5.54 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2087 | 5.51 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2088 | 5.48 | e | 0.63 | e | ||
| 2089 | 5.44 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2090 | 5.42 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2091 | 5.4 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2092 | 5.38 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2093 | 5.36 | e | 0.64 | e | ||
| 2094 | 5.34 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2095 | 5.34 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2096 | 5.33 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2097 | 5.33 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2098 | 5.33 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2099 | 5.34 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
| 2100 | 5.34 | e | 0.65 | e | ||
Legend: Data source: Social Security Trustees Report, Table VI.G4 | ||||||
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Spending Data Sources
Spending data is from official government sources.
- Federal spending data since 1962 comes from the president’s budget.
- All other spending data comes from the US Census Bureau.
Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.
Detailed table of spending data sources here.
Medicare breakdown here; Medicaid breakdown here.
Federal spending data begins in 1792.
State and local spending data begins in 1820.
State and local spending data for individual states begins in 1957.
Gross Federal Debt
| Debt Now: | $34,558,286,201,504.24 | Debt 2/2020: | $23,409,959,150,243.63 |
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Data Sources for 2013_2100:
Sources for 2013:
GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
Sources for 2100:
GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years
> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.
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| $ billion | Estimate for 2024 in FY2024 Budget | Estimate for 2024 in FY2025 Budget | Change |
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| Federal Deficit | $1,569.4 | $1,859.4 | +$290.0 |
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