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Forecast of Future Revenue


The Congressional Budget Office publishes regular forecasts of future federal government revenue.

CBO: Long-term Outlook for Federal Revenue

Federal revenue will increase from 16.5 percent to 19 percent of GDP in the early 2040s.

CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

Chart 3.61: CBO Estimate - Federal Revenue

The Congressional Budget Office Long-term Budget Outlook released in September 2020 projects the trends in federal revenue out to 2050.

According to the CBO federal revenue will increase in the next 30 years from 16 percent of GDP in FY 2020 to nearly 19 percent of GDP at the end of the 2040s.


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Revenue Data Sources

Revenue data is from official government sources.

Gross Domestic Product data comes from US Bureau of Economic Analysis and measuringworth.com.

Detailed table of revenue data sources here.

Federal revenue data begins in 1792.

State and local revenue data begins in 1820.

State and local revenue data for individual states begins in 1957.

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Data Sources for 2026:

GDP, GO: GDP, GO Sources
Federal: Fed. Budget: Hist. Tables 3.2, 5.1, 7.1
State and Local: State and Local Gov. Finances
'Guesstimated' by projecting the latest change in reported spending forward to future years

> data sources for other years
> data update schedule.

Blog

State and Local Finances for 2024 -- First Look

On July 2, 2026 we updated the state and local spending and revenue for FY 2024 using the new Census Bureau State and Local Government Finances "first look"summaries for FY 2024 released in April 2026.  (See also Annual Survey of State and Local Government Finances). The release includes state and local spending for the United States as a whole. It does not include the 50 individual states and the District of Columbia.

State and local spending and revenue for FY2024 are now actual historical spending as reported by the Census Bureau.

We have updated the "guesstimated" state and local finances for FY2025-31 as indicated in our "guesstimate" blog entries.

Beginning in 2021, the Census Bureau stopped splitting "Public welfare" into three parts:

  • Cash assistance payments
  • Vendor payments
  • Other public welfare
This is a problem for usgovernmentspending.com, because most of "Vendor payments" are for health care and are just pass-through grants from the federal government. So, for the time being, we are splitting "Public welfare" into  the proportions that obtained in 2021.

Medicare/Social Security 2026 Trustees Report Released
On June 16, 2026, the Center for Medicare Services released its annual ...

CBO Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026
On February 25, 2026 the Congressional Budget Office released its annual Long Term Budget Outlook for 2026, which projects ...

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